Conformal Prediction Intervals with Tail-Specific Guarantees

This paper extends classical conformal frameworks for constructing prediction intervals with global marginal coverage $1-α$ to intervals that provide explicitly calibrated guarantees for the upper and lower tails separately. Focusing on split conformal prediction, we first construct lower and upper one-sided conformal intervals that achieve marginal validity, and then derive the induced two-sided interval by intersection. Theoretical results prove both tail-specific and global marginal coverage of the induced two-sided interval. Results are presented first for the exchangeable setting, where coverage has finite-sample guarantees, and then for non-exchangeable data, where guarantees are asymptotic. Simulation studies show that the proposed approach achieves improved directional calibration relative to classical two-sided intervals, especially relevant in skewed data. Finally, the benefit of the proposed framework is showcased in a financial application, where one aims for return maximization while seeking strict control on the left tail.

Source: arXiv:2606.18199v1 - http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.18199v1 PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.18199v1 Original Link: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.18199v1