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Research PaperResearchia:202609.29045

Representation Risk in Pretrained Image Encoders

Morgan Nordstrom

Abstract

Applied researchers increasingly convert images into features with pretrained encoders, then use those features in a downstream prediction model. The encoder is often treated as an implementation detail. We show that it can instead be a consequential source of model uncertainty. We call this uncertainty representation risk: plausible pretrained encoders map the same images into different feature spaces and can yield sharply different out-of-sample conclusions from predictive performance. We comp...

Submitted: September 29, 2026Subjects: Economics; Environmental Science

Description / Details

Applied researchers increasingly convert images into features with pretrained encoders, then use those features in a downstream prediction model. The encoder is often treated as an implementation detail. We show that it can instead be a consequential source of model uncertainty. We call this uncertainty representation risk: plausible pretrained encoders map the same images into different feature spaces and can yield sharply different out-of-sample conclusions from predictive performance. We compare ten modern and legacy frozen encoders across applications involving house prices, racehorse performance, breast-cancer histology, chest radiographs, continuous facial age, and rice disease. With common dimension control, heads, and group-safe splits, validation selects SigLIP 2 for houses, raising test R2R^2 from 0.396 for ResNet50 to 0.629, and DINOv2 for horses, raising R2R^2 from 0.029 to 0.105. No encoder is best in every task. Candidate procedures are constructed using training data and compared on a separate validation partition. The selected procedure reaches 0.658 for houses and 0.979 accuracy for pneumonia. Fixed-split gains are small for horses and rice, while repeated partitions reveal instability in horse feature union. Continuous age selects SigLIP 2 at 4.786 years MAE. The principal representation gaps persist with neural heads, similarly sized DINOv2 and ViT models, and limited adaptation. These results support a simple workflow: benchmark plausible representations, select on locked validation data, combine only when separate validation evidence justifies the additional cost, and report paired and split-level uncertainty. We implement this workflow in LOOKAGAIN-ML, the software package used to conduct the analyses in this paper.


Source: arXiv:2609.35470v1 - http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35470v1 PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2609.35470v1 Original Link: http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.35470v1

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Date:
Sep 29, 2026
Topic:
Environmental Science
Area:
Economics
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