Betting Against Integrity: Identifying Match-Fixing Through In-Play Market Dynamics

Match-fixing undermines the integrity of sport by eroding public trust and threatening the financial sustainability of clubs and leagues. The global expansion of sports betting markets has created new incentives and opportunities for manipulation, calling for rigorous, data-driven monitoring tools. Football, which accounts for the largest share of global betting turnover, remains particularly exposed: integrity reports continue to flag several suspicious matches, with past scandals in Italy and Turkey underlining the problem's persistence. This study uses high-frequency live-betting data from the Italian Serie B (2018/19-2020/21) to explore statistical approaches for detecting abnormal betting behaviour. A state-space modelling framework is employed to describe standard betting market dynamics and to predict expected betting volumes conditional on match characteristics. Deviations from these expectations can then be analysed using outlier detection techniques to identify potentially suspicious periods. The results demonstrate how statistical modelling can contribute to the early identification of irregular betting patterns, thereby supporting integrity assurance in live sports betting markets.

Source: arXiv:2605.30209v1 - http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30209v1 PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.30209v1 Original Link: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30209v1