Stress Amplified Resilience: ESG and Joint Fragility in Equity Markets

Market stress rarely harms investors through one channel alone. Losses, volatility spikes, and deteriorating tradability often arrive together. We examine whether ESG is associated with lower exposure to clustered fragility in equity markets. Using monthly data on S&P 500 constituents from 2014 to 2025, we study downside returns, volatility, illiquidity, and a cofragility state that captures their joint occurrence within the same firm month. The evidence supports a stress-amplified resilience interpretation rather than an unconditional ESG return premium. In the return channel, the ESG association is concentrated in the extreme downside tail during stress months. In the volatility channel, higher ESG is associated with smaller risk spikes when aggregate conditions are weak. In the illiquidity channel, the association is more persistent, suggesting a liquidity-quality component whose relevance increases when market-wide trading conditions deteriorate. The central evidence comes from the joint analysis: a one-standard-deviation increase in ESG lowers the stress-period probability of severe cofragility by 0.92 percentage points, about 9% relative to the baseline. Double Machine Learning shows a similar negative ESG association after flexible adjustment for observable firm characteristics. Pillar evidence suggests stronger baseline resilience for Environmental scores and clearer stress amplification for Social scores. Overall, the findings characterize ESG as a multi-channel fragility signal for tail-risk monitoring, stress analysis, and pillar-level ESG assessment.

Source: arXiv:2606.05631v1 - http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05631v1 PDF: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.05631v1 Original Link: http://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05631v1